Equities

Financial stress

Daily · ECB composite indicator of systemic stress (latest 13 Oct 2026) · OFR Financial Stress Index (latest 12 Oct 2026)

Systemic stress is low in the euro area (ECB CISS 0.012, 17th percentile since 1980) and low in the United States (0.008, 13th percentile); the OFR Financial Stress Index is −2.15, 34th percentile since 2000 (below its median).

Euro area · CISS

ECB systemic stress, 0–113 Oct

0.012

17th percentile since 1980 · low

United States · CISS

ECB systemic stress, 0–113 Oct

0.008

13th percentile since 1980 · low

United Kingdom · CISS

ECB systemic stress, 0–113 Oct

0.007

12th percentile since 1980 · low

China · CISS

ECB systemic stress, 0–109 Oct

0.001

below the 1st percentile since 2006 · low

OFR FSI · global

0 = average stress12 Oct

−2.15

34th percentile since 2000 · below its median

Euro area CISS record

Highest since 198020 Nov 2008

0.941

GME calculation from ECB data

OFR FSI record

Highest since 200010 Oct 2008

29.32

GME calculation from OFR data

Stress gauges at a glance

Latest value, changes, percentile and level, median and 90th percentile since series start, 1-year range and record · click a header to sort

Measure	Latest	Date	1W	1M	Pctl	Level	Median	90th pct	1Y low	1Y high	Record	on	Since
Euro area	0.012	13 Oct 2026	−0.005	−0.021	17	low	0.059	0.332	0.002	0.069	0.941	20 Nov 2008	1980
United States	0.008	13 Oct 2026	+0.001	−0.009	13	low	0.041	0.295	0.003	0.059	0.896	20 Nov 2008	1980
United Kingdom	0.007	13 Oct 2026	−0.002	−0.014	12	low	0.053	0.300	0.000	0.113	0.809	7 Oct 1981	1980
China	0.001	9 Oct 2026	+0.001	−0.005	0.4	low	0.047	0.201	0.000	0.042	0.644	12 Dec 2008	2006
Germany	0.016	13 Oct 2026	+0.001	−0.007	28	below its median	0.052	0.299	0.001	0.073	0.879	17 Dec 2008	1980
France	0.048	13 Oct 2026	+0.011	+0.018	50	below its median	0.049	0.271	0.000	0.118	0.800	5 Oct 1992	1985
Italy	0.011	13 Oct 2026	−0.006	−0.006	16	low	0.056	0.334	0.002	0.076	0.852	8 Oct 1992	1990
Spain	0.004	13 Oct 2026	−0.001	−0.006	7	low	0.043	0.309	0.001	0.027	0.840	8 Oct 1992	1991
OFR Financial Stress Index (global)	−2.15	12 Oct 2026	−0.05	+0.30	34	below its median	−1.25	+4.58	−3.03	+0.20	+29.32	10 Oct 2008	2000

Source: ECB statistics. · Office of Financial Research, "OFR Financial Stress Index," refreshed daily, https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/ (accessed 2026-10-15). · Changes, percentiles, medians, ranges and levels: Global Macro Expert calculation

ECB composite indicator of systemic stress

Daily, index 0–1, unmodified ECB values · choose areas · dashed: euro area median and 90th percentile since 1980; dots: euro area peaks (Global Macro Expert calculation)

Euro area median · 90th pctEuro area peak

Source: ECB statistics. · Median, percentile and peaks: Global Macro Expert calculation

OFR Financial Stress Index

Daily, 0 = average stress · index and its published contributions · index view: dashed median and 90th percentile since 2000, dots: peaks (Global Macro Expert calculation)

Office of Financial Research, "OFR Financial Stress Index," refreshed daily, https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/ (accessed 2026-10-15). · Median, percentile and peaks: Global Macro Expert calculation

OFR General Disclaimer: “This OFR monitor is presented solely for informative purposes and should not be relied upon for financial decisions; it is not intended to provide any investment or financial advice. If you have any specific questions about any financial or other matter please consult an appropriately qualified professional. The OFR makes no warranty, express or implied, nor assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, reliability, and usefulness of any information that is available through this website, nor represents that its use would not infringe on any privately owned rights.”

What drives the OFR index now

Published contributions on 12 Oct 2026 · they add up to the index (−2.15) · negative = below-average stress

By category

Credit

−0.99

Equity valuation

−0.54

Safe assets

−0.29

Funding

−0.16

Volatility

−0.16

By region

United States

−1.25

Other advanced economies

−0.37

Emerging markets

−0.54

Office of Financial Research, "OFR Financial Stress Index," refreshed daily, https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/ (accessed 2026-10-15).

Notes, definitions and sources

ECB CISS: composite indicators computed by the ECB (provider code 4F), shown unmodified; higher values mean more systemic stress, on a scale from 0 to 1. Series titles as published by the ECB: “Euro area (changing composition), New Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), Index”; “United States, New Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), Index”; “United Kingdom, New Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), Index”; “China, New Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), Index”; “Germany, New Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), Index”; “France, New Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), Index”; “Italy, New Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), Index”; “Spain, New Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), Index”. Sub-indices built from third-party market data are not shown.
OFR FSI: The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. (Office of Financial Research) Only the index and the contributions the OFR publishes are shown, never the input variables.
Changes, percentiles (share of observations since the series start at or below the latest value), ranges and extremes: Global Macro Expert calculation. Median and 90th percentile: all daily observations since the series start (linear interpolation). Peaks: highest value in each of the windows 2008–2009, 2020, 2022; dates and values only.
How the summary sentences are written: they are generated from the data with fixed thresholds and describe the numbers only. Stress level by percentile since the series start (below 25: low; 25–50: below its median; 50–75: above its median; 75–90: elevated; 90–100: high). Positioning extremes: 3-year index at or below 10 or at or above 90. Shares excluding not-comparable values and percentiles: Global Macro Expert calculation.
OFR General Disclaimer: “This OFR monitor is presented solely for informative purposes and should not be relied upon for financial decisions; it is not intended to provide any investment or financial advice. If you have any specific questions about any financial or other matter please consult an appropriately qualified professional. The OFR makes no warranty, express or implied, nor assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, reliability, and usefulness of any information that is available through this website, nor represents that its use would not infringe on any privately owned rights.”
Values unmodified. Percentiles, changes and ranges are Global Macro Expert calculations. In any paid product, users must be told before payment and on each access that the data is available free of charge from the ECB.